However, in nonstationary setting, existing work only partially addressed the problem by either utilizing observed auxiliary variables (e.g., class labels and/or domain indexes) as side-information or assuming simplified latent causal dynamics. Both constrain the method to a limited range of scenarios.

Temporally causal representation learning aims to identify the latent causal process from time series observations, but most methods require the assumption that the latent causal processes do not have instantaneous relations. Although some recent methods achieve identifiability in the instantaneous causality case, they require either interventions on the latent variables or grouping of the observations, which are in general difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose an \textbf{ID}entification framework for instantane\textbf{O}us \textbf{L}atent dynamics (\textbf{IDOL}) by imposing a sparse influence constraint that the latent causal processes have sparse time-delayed and instantaneous relations. Specifically, we establish identifiability results of the latent causal process based on sufficient variability and the sparse influence constraint by employing contextual information of time series data. Based on these theories, we incorporate a temporally variational inference architecture to estimate the latent variables and a gradient-based sparsity regularization to identify the latent causal process. Experimental results on simulation datasets illustrate that our method can identify the latent causal process. Furthermore, evaluations on multiple human motion forecasting benchmarks with instantaneous dependencies indicate the effectiveness of our method in real-world settings.

In unsupervised causal representation learning for sequential data with time-delayed latent causal influences, strong identifiability results for the disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established in stationary settings by leveraging temporal structure. However, in nonstationary setting, existing work only partially addressed the problem by either utilizing observed auxiliary variables (e.g., class labels and/or domain indexes) as side-information or assuming simplified latent causal dynamics. Both constrain the method to a limited range of scenarios. In this study, we further explored the Markov Assumption under time-delayed causally related process in nonstationary setting and showed that under mild conditions, the independent latent components can be recovered from their nonlinear mixture up to a permutation and a component-wise transformation, without the observation of auxiliary variables. We then introduce NCTRL, a principled estimation framework, to reconstruct time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data only. Empirical evaluations demonstrated the reliable identification of time-delayed latent causal influences, with our methodology substantially outperforming existing baselines that fail to exploit the nonstationarity adequately and then, consequently, cannot distinguish distribution shifts.

Recently in the field of unsupervised representation learning, strong identifiability results for disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established by exploiting certain side information, such as class labels, in addition to independence. However, most existing work is constrained by functional form assumptions such as independent sources or further with linear transitions, and distribution assumptions such as stationary, exponential family distribution. It is unknown whether the underlying latent variables and their causal relations are identifiable if they have arbitrary, nonparametric causal influences in between. In this work, we establish the identifiability theories of nonparametric latent causal processes from their nonlinear mixtures under fixed temporal causal influences and analyze how distribution changes can further benefit the disentanglement. We propose \textbf{\texttt{TDRL}}, a principled framework to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured sequential data under stationary environments and under different distribution shifts. Specifically, the framework can factorize unknown distribution shifts into transition distribution changes under fixed and time-varying latent causal relations, and under observation changes in observation. Through experiments, we show that time-delayed latent causal influences are reliably identified and that our approach considerably outperforms existing baselines that do not correctly exploit this modular representation of changes. Our code is available at: \url{https://github.com/weirayao/tdrl}.